RBA announces latest rate call for 2024

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) has announced another rate hold amid stubborn inflation and faltering economic growth.

The RBA left the cash rate unchanged at 4.35 per cent for the ninth consecutive time.

The market was unanimous on the RBA holding the cash rate.

The RBA’s last rate hike occurred in November last year, marking its 13th since it commenced its tightening cycle in May 2022.

Since then, trimmed mean inflation has eased from above 5 per cent year-on-year to 3.5 per cent, but remains well above the RBA’s 2–3 per cent comfort zone, defying a cooling economy.

Productivity woes are partly to blame, economists agree, with Q3 data revealing falling output per worker and surging unit labour costs, up 4.3 per cent year-on-year.

The RBA acknowledged its battle with inflation on Tuesday, as well as the disappointing gross domestic product (GDP) data, noting: “While underlying inflation is still high, other recent data on economic activity have been mixed, but on balance softer than expected in November.

“Sustainably returning inflation to target within a reasonable time frame remains the board’s highest priority. This is consistent with the RBA’s mandate for price stability and full employment. To date, longer-term inflation expectations have been consistent with the inflation target and it is important that this remains the case,” the RBA said.

Prior to Tuesday’s rate announcement, Paul Bloxham, chief economist at HSBC, attributed inflation’s stickiness to several factors: cautious rate hikes designed to protect employment, expansionary fiscal policies and a struggling supply side.

“Our central case is that cuts will start from Q2 2025, and we expect only a shallow easing phase, with the cash rate at 3.85 per cent by end-2025 and 3.60 per cent in early 2026.

“We see a 25 per cent chance of no cuts at all in 2025,” Bloxham said.

Compounding the RBA’s dilemma is Australia’s surprisingly resilient labour market, CBA’s economist acknowledged last week, which remains at 4.1 per cent, even as GDP growth crawls at an annual rate of just 0.8 per cent – its slowest pace in decades outside of the pandemic.

Gareth Aird noted that rising joblessness was expected amid seven consecutive quarters of per-person economic contraction, but the labour market’s surprising resilience is sustaining inflationary pressures and keeping the RBA cautious.

“We expect the RBA board will leave the cash rate unchanged next week in a straightforward decision,” Aird said at the time.

He highlighted that while the central bank expected to see another contraction in the economy on a per-capita basis in the September quarter, “GDP growth was softer than the RBA anticipated”.

The CBA expects the central bank to begin cutting rates in February. Its peers, however, have pushed back their rate cut forecasts to May.

Two-speed economy

Last week, the Australian Bureau of Statistics revealed Australian GDP rose 0.3 per cent in the September quarter 2024, and by 0.8 per cent since September 2023 – the slowest annual growth in GDP in more than three decades.

While the economy grew for the 12th quarter in a row, it has continued to slow since September 2023.

GDP per capita fell by 0.3 per cent, falling for the seventh straight quarter.

Similar to last quarter, economic strength was primarily driven by public sector spending, with both government consumption and public investment playing key roles in driving growth.

In fact, government spending rose by 1.4 per cent, with social benefits to households increasing via the energy cost relief rebates.

Public investment rose 6.3 per cent in the September quarter, with general government investment growing 6.0 per cent on the back of defence equipment imports and investment in hospitals and roads. Recurrent public spending increased by 1.4 per cent on the quarter in the September quarter, and 4.7 per cent over the year.

Conversely, household spending remained flat in the September quarter after a 0.3 per cent decline in June, with electricity and gas spending being the largest drag on growth due to energy bill relief rebates.

Business investment fell over the quarter, driven by a decline in both non-residential construction (-1.8 per cent/quarter) and new engineering construction (-1.5 per cent/quarter). However, there was a partial offset by a lift in machinery and equipment (+0.6 per cent).

Commenting on the data, Aird said the economy clearly remains two-speed.

“Economic growth in the private sector has been non-existent over the past two quarters. It is only public spending that has kept GDP growth positive over that period,” the head of Australian economics at the big four bank said.

He explained that this is an unusual situation, one that largely accounts for the persistent period of weak productivity growth.