RBA makes February rate call

The RBA has left rates on hold at their effective lower bound of 0.1 per cent at its first meeting of 2021 but will purchase an additional $100 billion in government bonds issued by the states and territories.

“The outlook for the global economy has improved over recent months due to the development of vaccines. While the path ahead is likely to remain bumpy and uneven, there are better prospects for a sustained recovery than there were a few months ago,” RBA governor Philip Lowe wrote.

“That recovery, however, remains dependent on the health situation and on significant fiscal and monetary support. Inflation remains low and below central bank targets.”

The announcement comes as the Morrison government turns its gaze away from stimulus support and towards the recovery, promising to have every Australian vaccinated by October and tamping down on calls for more JobKeeper and permanent changes to JobSeeker. The IMF recently revised Australia’s GDP growth upward, while Prime Minister Scott Morrison anticipates that Australians will spend big to fund the recovery, unleashing the “huge sums” that have been saved as a result of lockdowns.

“Our task now is to continue our economic recovery by sticking to our economic recovery plan and, importantly, exercising the fiscal discipline necessary to ensure that we do not overburden future generations and continue to spend taxpayers’ money wisely. We are not running a blank cheque budget,” Mr Morrison said.

However, the emergence of mutant strains of COVID-19 – which are suspected to be both more transmissible and deadly – could threaten this otherwise optimistic outlook. More insight can be expected on Wednesday, when Mr Lowe will deliver his forecast for 2021 at the National Press Club. Mr Lowe will also front the standing committee on economics on Friday.